To think like an analyst means using mental models to simplify complex problems, assessing risk versus reward, and processing information from various sources with different levels of reliability and bias. Key concepts include understanding how simple rules can result in complex behavior, thinking in probabilities, and the difference between risk and volatility. When evaluating information, it’s essential to consider factors like a source’s credibility, background, biases, and time horizons. Tools that help with this approach include red teaming, pre-mortem analysis, and the 5 Whys technique.
I am currently in the initial brainstorming phase of a new project with a few collaborators. Our ultimate objective is to develop a comprehensive course focused on the mindset and tools utilized by top analysts. The project will begin by introducing simple tools that anyone can use immediately to enhance their decision-making skills and become more discerning consumers of information.
